HB - Who wins in Iowa? Does it matter?
I don’t like when these news guys talk about political primaries and caucuses like horse races. Each of these candidates have something to say. It is worth noting the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire. The candidates know and understand the importance of these states. This is one reason why I posted that post on how democratic is our nation and our constitution. If folks in Iowa and New Hampshire are that important to the outcome of an election then what about folks in San Diego, Portland and Houston? (Sorry, I went off on a tangent.)
Momentum is very important in primaries. If you can look invincible, then you roll thru the later states. On the other hand, if you look beatable then you get rolled. Obama has to prove that a Black man can be elected and electable. If he comes in a distant third he is dead in the water. On the other hand, Hillary has sold herself as presidential material. She knows how to beat Republicans because she has done it. At least that is what she is saying. I’m not sure that that’s true but that’s her tale. She held former President and Hubby Bill Clinton back for several months then brought him out on the campaign trail as a secret weapon. I’m not sure that bringing him out in Iowa and New Hampshire helped or hurt. Did he increase crowd size? Did he help Hillary get her message out? I don’t know. I think that he is a mixed blessing. John Edwards on the other hand, has been slow and steady. He has been pushing those popular buttons. He has worked with unions. He has pushed for main stream middle America stuff. If Edwards comes in a strong second, he will be okay in New Hampshire. If Hillary doesn’t win, she looks vulnerable.
On the Republican side, it is a free for all. I think that the top 2 or 3 winners in Iowa will get a boost of money and momentum. Romney has the most to lose in Iowa. He has sunk a ton of his own money in Iowa. John McCain and Mike Huckabee have the most to gain. Ruby Giuliani is just dead in the water. His strategy is one that I don’t believe that anyone in last 30 years has tried. Rudy must believe that no one gains any significant momentum in the primaries. Each state is a completely isolated race. If he is waiting until Florida to make his surge it might be way too late.
Very superstitious…
…from what I understand a very long time ago so & so, won Iowa and won the election and thus, winning Iowa is seen as an indication of who will win the bid. People who are undecided could be influenced to vote for the winner in those states. There are people who feel Obama can not win against a Republican, so if he were to win in one of the early states, people might reconsider.
Some feel Hillary can beat a Republican and will vote for her simply to vote Democrat, even tho’ they do not favor her. An early win for Hillary will confirm their opinion…
…sad that people go with the flow rather than make waves.
Alice -
You are partially right. Here are the caucus results for the last several caucuses.
2004 - Kerry won (Kerry won nomination)
2000 - Gore won (Gore)
1996 - Clinton won
1992 - Tom Harkin won (Clinton)
1988 - Richard Gephardt won (Dukakis)
1984 - Mondale won (Mondale)
1980 - Carter won (Carter)
I would have to argue with those folks who believe that Hillary Clinton can beat a Republican challenger. I’m not sure that that’s true. It might be. I don’t think that we know that as fact. There is a reason that the neocons have been pushing Clinton. I think that they believe that they can beat her.
Thanks for your comments.