Where's the Outrage?

The strategy to get your people to the polls early and avoid all of those last minute problems was brilliant.

From TPM:

• In Florida, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 56%-42% among early voters, with an estimated 56% of the total likely vote now cast. McCain is ahead 54%-43% with the rest, for an overall top-line of Obama 50%, McCain 48%.

• In Nevada, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 57%-43% among early voters, with an estimated 71% of the total likely vote already cast. McCain is up 57%-38% among the remaining votes, for an overall top-line result of Obama 51%, McCain 47% — but McCain would need to win the remaining voters by more than two to one, if these estimates are accurate.

• In Ohio, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead 60%-36% among the early voters, with an estimated 30% of the total vote already cast. McCain is ahead 51%-43% among the remainder, for an overall top-line of Obama 48%, McCain 46%. But the pollster’s analysis expresses serious doubt about whether McCain can get the needed extra margin to overcome Obama’s early-vote lead, based on the demographics of the remaining voters.

Tags: Election 2008 by ecthompson md
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Monday Evening News Round-up

• I am not clairvoyant, nor can I see into the future. All I can tell you is that Barack Obama has run a phenomenal campaign. It is my opinion that history will show that he is by far the best person for this job at this point in time.
• As I mentioned earlier, Barack Obama’s grandmother has died. My condolences to him and to his family.
• I believe that voting is extremely important in this election cycle. For those of you in states that don’t have early voting and the rest of you who decided to wait until voting day — please be patient. The lines will be long. Take a book. Bring a lawn chair. Bring your iPod. Do whatever is necessary to make sure that you are able to cast your ballot. (I voted last week.)
• Almost every poll shows Barack Obama with a significant lead. He is ahead in the popular vote, which (if you’ll remember) doesn’t count. He is ahead in almost every battleground state. Nate has a good summary.
• I have always questioned why William Kristol, archconservative, was given the opportunity to write a column in the New York Times. I have yet to get a satisfactory answer. This morning, Mr. Kristol served up a large dish of complete nonsense. He goes on and on about why liberals can be happy if somehow John McCain pulls out a victory in tomorrow’s election. It may be the stupidest column I’ve ever read. Can someone throw him back on a paper that is more suitable to his mental capacity…maybe something published by junior high schoolers and stapled together?
• John McCain was in the conservative stronghold of Tampa, Florida this morning, expecting a huge crowd. Only about a thousand people showed up. Oops. Maybe folks didn’t get the invitations? Wasn’t it John McCain who had to bus in 4000 students last week?
• The right is already warming up their excuses. When Barack Obama wins, they will begin to roll out the reasons why his presidency is not legitimate. They did the same thing to Bill Clinton.
• The electronics store Circuit City announced it will close 155 stores nationwide. Most of the closings will be in California, Georgia, Illinois, Arizona and Ohio. They will cut their workforce by over 17%. I just hope someone is cutting the CEO’s salary by over 17%. Remember that Circuit City was the company that fired some 3,000 employees because they were deemed “overpaid.” Those same employees were free to re-apply for their jobs at a reduced wage.  I really can’t comment honestly on this type of behavior since this is a family-friendly blog!
• The DailyKos is ready for tomorrow’s election. Those guys have come a long way. They’re expecting a surge of traffic and have installed new servers…at least I hope they have. They have a new election scoreboard which will be interactive. You can get more information — here.

Tags: Economy, Election 2008 by ecthompson md
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It appears that the biggest tragedy of Barack Obama’s life may have occurred this morning. Barack Obama’s grandmother Madelyn Dunham died early this morning. Imagine the true driving force in your life dying just a little bit more than 24 hours before you either win or lose the White House. Extremely sad.

From WaPo:

The campaign released a statement from Obama and his sister Maya Soetoro-Ng this afternoon:

“It is with great sadness that we announce that our grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died peacefully after a battle with cancer. She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances. She was proud of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren and left this world with the knowledge that her impact on all of us was meaningful and enduring. Our debt to her is beyond measure.

“Our family wants to thank all of those who sent flowers, cards, well-wishes, and prayers during this difficult time. It brought our grandmother and us great comfort. Our grandmother was a private woman, and we will respect her wish for a small private ceremony to be held at a later date. In lieu of flowers, we ask that you make a donation to any worthy organization in search of a cure for cancer.”

Tags: Election 2008 by ecthompson md
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Okay, let’s talk about money…again. A couple weeks ago, I had several posts discussing our financial crisis and how we could refocus our efforts to bring prosperity to every one. The one thing that I knew little or nothing about is something called Credit Default Swaps. This is a $45 trillion market (that is “trillion” with a capital “T.”)

Now everyone knows basically how insurance works. I take out an auto insurance policy. I pay an insurance company and they assess the risk of my driving a car and getting into an automobile crash. If the risk is low, I don’t pay all that much. If the risk is high, I pay a lot more or I become uninsurable. Suppose, on the other hand, you want to take an auto insurance policy out on me. You don’t know me. You have no financial ties to me other than to consider me a “safe bet” and, as such, you would really like to be responsible for insuring my driving. You would need to be able to find a third-party, like AIG ,to give you such an insurance policy…or a Credit Default Swap.

This is basically what happened on Wall Street. In 2000, a lame-duck Congress passed legislation which legalized these Credit Default Swaps. What’s that old saying? “Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it” (Edmund Burke). In 1907, many states and Congress itself moved to outlaw the practice. (This is why I totally reject the idea that someone like Joe the Plumber or Sarah Palin should be in charge of anything. We need smart people who understand where we are in history. It’s nearly impossible to know where we’re going if we don’t know where we’ve been. Palin and Joe have no clue. Why did Congress outlaw this practice? A run on banks in 1907 nearly caused the collapse of Wall Street. People had what were known as betting parlors and they were betting on stocks without owning stocks (watch the 60 minutes video below):

We had multiple opportunities to intervene in this legalized gambling, yet we have or had this ridiculous notion that the markets will correct themselves. This is just one piece of the puzzle. It is a $45 trillion unregulated piece of the puzzle. Do we really need Credit Default Swaps?

Check out some great articles on this:

• NPR
• Time Magazine
• NY Times

Watch CBS Videos Online

Tags: Economy, Senate by ecthompson md
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Unless you are deaf, dumb and blind, you know that Barack Obama is ahead in all the major polls. So how can John McCain win? If Democrats and Barack Obama supporters become complacent and don’t go to the polls, that is an easy way for John McCain to win. The statistic gurus over at 538.com ran over 10,000 scenarios using the existing polling data. John McCain only wins 624 out of the 10,000 scenarios. John McCain has to win Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. Of note, North Carolina is extremely important in a couple of the scenarios.

So, although it is highly unlikely that John McCain will win this election, it is not impossible. If we do our part and if we work hard in this last 48 hours…if we talk to our neighbors and go to the polls and vote, Barack Obama will win. Barack Obama will become the 44th president of the United States.

Tags: Election 2008 by ecthompson md
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